The Calculating Cunning of Commissioner Coster
On 20 February - ten days before the police took decisive action to remove the occupation on Parliament grounds and the surrounding precinct - TVNZ's Q+A host, Jack Tame, interviewed Police Commissioner Andrew Coster.
One of the first questions Jack Tame asked the Commissioner was whether he was being "too soft" on the occupiers. He repeatedly asked why the occupation had not been cleared.
Commissioner Coster replied with startling honesty:
“Some people might say that on the first night when the tents started being put up, that we should have gone in. The level of force that we would have had to use to achieve success at that time would have been unacceptable to most New Zealanders and would have been very subject to criticism in terms of it's lawfulness.
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To achieve clearance at that time again we would have had to use a level of force that most New Zealanders would have found confronting and unacceptable.”
Commissioner Coster was clear that the numbers at the occupation were clearly too great to deal with in normal policing:
“We had arrested over a hundred people and our ability to keep dealing with that number of people with the staff that we had available was capacity was reached.”
In clear, simple terms, there were too many to deal with. The Police could not "arrest their way out" of the situation. He pointed to “Ihumātao, cleared without confrontation”. Commissioner Coster further expressed Police emphasis on non-violent resolution to civil disturbance:
“If we look at the way we policed through covid [with] unprecedented measures put in place, in most countries you saw clashes between police and protesters. In New Zealand it was done peacefully.”
Throughout the interview, Aotearoa's most senior policeman - the face of State-sanctioned force - was strongly implying that force was not the answer to resolving the occupation at Wellington.
Fast forward to TVNZ's Q+A interview with Commissioner Coster on 6 March - four days after Police conducted an operation that began in the early hours of Wednesday morning, and culminating in subduing a riot by an out-of-control mob. Commissioner Coster had this to say to Host Jack Tame:
“We pursued a path of de-escalation over the previous week … and we made real progress with that and that work really allowed us to get to a stage where we could be confident of being successful this week.”
As that situation became worse, the mix at the protest changed. We saw some of the original crowd leave and we saw people come in who appeared to be there more for defiance and to fight rather than the original issue.”
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Once we had an occupation of the the size that we did and the momentum that it had, the only way to deal with it was to gradually de-escalate. We didn't get the peaceful resolution that we hoped for ... at least we were able to get the numbers to a point where police could resolve it.”
What had changed between Commissioner Coster's statements made on 20 February and the police operation on Wednesday 2 March?
Time.
Commissioner Coster was playing for time.
He was waiting for police reinforcements to arrive. (This blogger is aware of police staff from Counties Manukau being brought down to Wellington.)
But more importantly, he was waiting for numbers of occupiers to shrink during the week. Whilst numbers tended to swell in the weekends, by Monday people had left the Parliamentary precinct to return to jobs or businesses.
It was no accident that the police operation took place on a Wednesday - the middle of the week, when numbers at the occupation had ebbed at its lowest.
But the most important tactic were the words the Commissioner used on 20 February, on Q+A:
“The level of force that we would have had to use to achieve success at that time would have been unacceptable to most New Zealanders...”
“...a level of force that most New Zealanders would have found confronting and unacceptable...”
“... the staff that we had available was capacity was reached.”
“... In New Zealand it was done peacefully.”
“... in most countries you saw clashes between police and protesters. In New Zealand it was done peacefully.”
It was at that point that Commissioner Coster was beginning to play what should now be referred to as the "Coster Gambit".
He was not speaking to the public of Aotoearoa.
He was speaking obliquely to the occupiers; the hard-core anti-government elements; the little-seen, shadowy figures who had hijacked the protest and turned it into a nascent insurrection.
With talk of "peaceful" resolution and "confronting and unacceptable" levels of force, Commissioner Coster was lulling the occupiers and its anarchic "leadership" not only into a false sense of security - but into a bloated over-confidence that they were now "Too Big To Fail".
It was a master stroke. And it worked.
Numbers dwindled during the week. Police numbers increased. And they made their move on early Wednesday morning.
The occupiers were taken by surprised. Without firm leadership on the ground (they were all in hiding, nowhere to be seen), the occupiers became a disorganised, undirected, violent rabble. Think: chicken with it's head cut off.
The veneer of a peaceful protest was finally torn away for the whole country to witness. (Much of the video footage being taken by occupiers themselves - for which police have expressed appreciation for upcoming prosecutions.)
Far from being "soft" on the occupiers, Commissioner Coster had formulated a plan so cunning that "cunning" doesn't begin to describe it.
Baldrick would have approved.
And best of all? There were no serious injuries or deaths from either side. For which all New Zealanders would have approved.
The Coster Gambit - checkmate.
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References
Youtube: Q+A - Police Commissioner Andrew Coster - 20.2.2022
TVNZ: Police 'did the best that we could' handling protest - Coster
Twitter: @realrogerboyce - Just some of your everyday Kiwis @ the Freedumb campout
Previous related blogposts
The funny side of anti-vax conspiracy fantasists
The not-so-funny side of anti-vax conspiracy fantasists
The vexing trouble with anti-vaxxers
Protest at Parliament: we came, we saw,then we went home for dinner
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Acknowledgement: Emma Cook
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= fs =
I breathed a sigh of relief. Someone with intelligence and experience.
A masterly summary. I have watched Coster's tactics with great interest. When you compare his approach to the approaches adopted overseas he definitely showed the most understanding of the situation he found himself faced with. I was particularly impressed that not only did he read the mood of the protestors correctly, he also read the mood of the country at large as well. He was completely correct in his original comment that the level of force he would have had to use at the start "...would have been unacceptable to most New Zealanders".
When he did finally send in the troops he remained very restrained and yet still managed to achieve his objectives. Again, I believe that he read the mood of the country correctly. By that time the protestors had proved themselves to be a rabble with no unified position and no clear objectives. They had become their own worst enemies! Everybody was fed up with them. His timing was impeccable.
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-Alan