The Votes That Media Dare Not Speak Its Name
Media have been presenting political polling at breath-taking speed. All are wrong.
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A recent political opinion poll (20 September) on TV1 presented what could only be called bleak news for the Left Bloc:
National: 37%, down two points equating to 46 seats
Labour: 27%, down one point (34 seats)
Greens: 12%, up two points (15 seats)
ACT: 12%, up two points (15 seats)
NZ First: 5%, steady (6 seats)
Te Pāti Māori: 3%, steady (4 seats)
The unattributed article stated, as fact;
“National and ACT remain on track to form a government after the election according to the latest 1News Verian poll… It means the right bloc - National and ACT - would have a total of 61 seats in Parliament, just enough to form a government.”
Except… it’s utterly wrong.
Aside from the barely mentioned fact that 12% remain Undecided or Refuse To Say who they would vote for, this poll ignores the elephant in the room: Special Votes.
The casting of Special Votes - many from Kiwis travelling overseas - plays a crucial part in the final, post-election, make-up of Parliament. This can be critical as to which Bloc wins sufficient seats to govern.
And without fail, Special Votes always favour the Left, stripping National of one or two seats after counting has determined final Parliamentary seating allocations.
National lost one seat from Election night, 59 down to 58
Green Party, 9, up from 8
National lost one seat from Election night, 60 down to 59
Green Party, 14, up from 13
National lost one seat from Election night, 61 down to 60
Green Party, 14, up from 13
National lost two seats from Election night, 58 down to 56
Labour gained one seat, 46, up from 45
Green Party, 8, up from 7
National lost two seats from Election night, 35 down to 33
Labour gained one seat, 65, up from 64
Te Pāti Māori, 2, up from 1
But you wouldn’t know any of this listening to the well-paid, supposedly authoritative political commentators on TV1, TV3, RNZ, NewstalkZB, et al. Not one has ever referred to the all-important issue of Special Votes: not one.
Think about that for a moment.
It effectively renders every single political poll a waste of time. Present polling results, without adding the Special Votes factor, give us only a partial insight as to how Parliament might look after a general election. In 2014, the Special Votes denied National a historic overall majority - a feat Labour would enjoy six years later during a global crisis.
But what else is new? The media has a poor track record when it comes to presenting a full, rounded political analysis.
Factoring in Special Votes is either too complicated for our esteemed political journos and commentators to get their heads around, or it interferes with the childishly simplistic narrative they are pushing. Both are likely.
Ignoring Special Votes very much meets the mental image of an elephant sitting quietly in the room, waiting to be noticed, as media commentators pore over numbers, arrive at half-baked conclusions, and rush to give their imperious reckons to us lesser mortals.
They are the 21st Century version of Cave-dwelling Oracles and Temple priestesses, passing on Revealed Knowledge to the Great Unwashed.
And like the oracles and priestesses of the Ancient World, their pronouncements should be viewed with scepticism. Or best ignored altogether.
After all, TV3/Newshub’s Jenna Lynch - taking herself way too seriously - even went so far as to ask Labour leader and PM, Chris Hipkins, if he was going to concede the election. After one poll. Before the General Election even took place.
Ironically, by ignoring the Special Votes Elephant, commentators have over-looked the significance of their own polls.
For example, take the most recent TV1 poll:
National: 46 seats
Labour: 34 seats
Greens: 15 seats
ACT: 15 seats
NZ First: 6 seats
Te Pāti Māori: 4 seats
Now factor in Special votes. (Labour/greens/TPM are lumped together, as are National and ACT, as it is unclear which Party will benefit from re-distributed seat allocation.)
Re-distribute two seats as in 2020 and 2017, and the result takes on a dramatic turn:
National/ACT: 59 seats
Labour/Greens/TPM: 55 seats
NZ First: 6 seats
National and ACT no longer have an outright majority.
The Left Bloc is also six seats short.
Which leaves the Winston Peters Party as King Maker. That’s the real story of this election.
The implications are staggering as both Chris Hipkins and David Seymour have - quite rightly - ruled out working with the unpredictable, populist Winston Peters and his rabble from the 1950s.
Which leaves a precarious position where National might not have the support to govern. Seymour has already stated he would not be part of any coalition that included Peters, would give “confidence” only and assess each legislation and government spending on a case-by-case basis, including the all-important Budget.
But you wouldn’t know it, looking at the feeble numbers games from media’s political commentators as they struggle to cope with the complexities of our electoral process.
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References
TVNZ: Poll - National, ACT, retain slender advantage in path to power
Electoral Commission: 2008 General Election official results
Electoral Commission: 2011 General Election official results
Electoral Commission: 2014 General Election official results
Electoral Commission: 2017 General Election official results
Electoral Commission: 2020 General Election official results
Stuff media: National loses majority, Greens pick up one
Newshub: Newshub-Reid Research poll results: Hipkins refuses to concede - Jenna Lynch
RNZ: 'Instability and chaos' - Labour rules out a partnership with NZ First
Stuff media: ACT categorically rules out working with Winston Peters and NZ First
Stuff media: David Seymour on his ‘confidence only’ coalition plans
TVNZ: Luxon dismissive of prospect of ACT offering confidence-only deal
Other Blogs
Nick's Kōrero: The Return Of Winston.
Previous related blogposts
The Bewildering World of Christopher Luxon - Health reforms
The Bewildering World of Christopher Luxon - Don't you know who I am, Bottomfeeders!
The Bewildering World of Christopher Luxon - Leadership, Labour vs National
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Acknowledgement: Martin Doyle
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= fs =
Another polling question that misleads is the one about whether the country is heading in the right direction or not.
Aside from the questionable practice of at least one pollster whose question refers to 'on the right track' the main fault with the question is the lack of a follow up to clarify what the 'right' direction would be.
So you get a result which says that, for example x% say the country under this government is heading in the wrong direction, but this answer does not differentiate between those wanting a right wing direction and those wanting a more left wing direction.
Most (of the breathless) poll reporting shows a very high level of statistical ignorance. This is notable in the way single numbers are given and the margin of error only added (generally inaccurately) as an after thought.
Good poll reporting would show results in bands. For example if a party's poll number is 45% and the margin of error is + or - 3% then the result should be shown as being 95% likely to fall within the band 42% to 48%.
Then there is the excitement over single poll results, when it is the trend that is what really matters.
Here is a bit more on margin of error that Roy Morgan includes at the end if their poll reports. The table hasn't formatted well, but note that the magnitude of the margin of error is different for different polling numbers - a point skimmed over by other pollsters when reporting the poll results.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2