*THOSE* polls! And *NOT* a hung Parliament!

A terminal govt on life support.

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One bad poll for a government can be dismissed as “rogue”. Two? That’s damaging.

A recent Talbot Mills done for the Labour Party - released on 1 December - had startling results that would’ve raised eyebrows and furrowed brows on the Beehive’s Ninth Floor.

Simply put, the Poll had Labour on 32% - ahead of National on 31%! It was an unbelievable result and inconceivable that an Opposition Party could pull ahead of the government - in its first term.

The actual results:

• Labour: 32%

• National: 31%

• ACT: 10%

• Greens: 10%

• Te Pāti Māori: 7%

• NZ First: 6%.

The poll was taken from November 22-28.

The poll showed Labour leader Chris Hipkins on 22.7% as preferred prime minister compared to PM Luxon on 22.1%.

National and right-leaning pundits can no longer claim that “people don’t know Luxon and just need to get to know him better”. They do. And they - generally speaking - don’t like him.

But it’s hard to judge on just one poll. It can be easily dismissed by the incumbent government at the receiving end of bad news - and lull Opposition supporters into a false sense of hope.

Except… it wasn’t an outlier.

The following day, Stuff published a second poll, by Freshwater Strategy - and this one was even more damning. According to this poll, National would lose the next election:

• National: 34% (-4% points since the election) (43 seats)

• Labour: 31% (+4%) (39 seats)

• Greens: 13% (+1%) (16 seats)

• ACT: 8% (-1%) (10 seats)

• NZ First: 6% (n/c) (8 seats)

• Te Pāti Māori: 4% (+1%) (6 seats)

The poll was taken between 26-27 November - around the same time as the Talbot Mills poll.

Interestingly, the public appears to have ‘moved on’ from scaremongering on crime, stoked by National, ACT, and an ever click-chasing media. It ranked as only fourth most important, after Cost of Living; Healthcare/Hospitals; and housing supply/affordability.

The fact that respondents were still worried about Cost of Living Pressure - despite tax cuts where Nicola Willis doled out cash like a drunken sailor - speaks to the reality that most New Zealanders have not felt any improvement in their lives with an extra $12.50 a week.

For many, those tax cuts were quickly eaten up by increased government charges or doctors’ fees, as Minister Willis barely increased government part-payments.

National’s reputation as a “fiscally prudent manager” of the economy appears to have taken a serious denting.

The Stuff/Freshwater Poll, however, did not reflect just how dire the situation is for National. Stuff’s headline ran:

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Wrote veteran political reporter, Andrea Vance:

“A grinding recession and racial tensions have ended National’s honeymoon with voters, who would deliver a hung Parliament if an election was held today, a new poll shows.”

Yet again, media pundits have failed to recognise the crucial importance of Special Votes.

As has been pointed out before by this blogger, after Special Votes are counted, the number of seats won on Election Night changes - often dramatically.

National usually loses two seats to the Left Bloc (Labour and/or Greens and/or Te Pāti Māori)

So taking the Stuff/Freshwater Poll and then factoring in ‘Specials’, the result is anything but a hung Parliament:

• National: 41 seats + ACT: 10 seats + NZ First: 8 seats = 59

• Labour: 39 seats + Greens: 16 seats + Te Pāti Māori*: 6 seats + 2 seats re-allocated = 63

(* over-hang for Te Pāti Māori creates a 122 seat in Parliament instead of the usual 120.)

The Left Bloc ends up with 63 seats, the Right with 59. A clear majority for the Left.

And Luxon’s career gone by lunchtime.

One day, the media’s political pundits will understand the importantance of Special Votes.

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References

Stuff media: Labour pulls ahead of National in internal polling, as Hipkins plans tax pitch

Stuff media: I am tired of Christopher Luxon acting as if he was some jovial everyman

TVNZ News: Poll - Just over half think PM Luxon out of touch with voters

Stuff media: New poll delivers hung Parliament, bad news for Christopher Luxon as preferred PM

The Spin-off: Budget 2024 - Nicola Willis gets her tax cuts through hundreds of little slashes

RNZ: Doctors warn fees will need to rise due to funding 'shortfall'

Previous related blogposts

The Votes That Media Dare Not Speak Its Name

Special Votes - the Media's Blindspot

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Acknowledgement: Sharon Murdoch

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