Pay, pay, go away...

...come again another day. Maybe.

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The Budget has been well and truly scrutinised by the Fourth Estate, Opposition politicians, pundits, and respected experts like Max Rashbrooke. This blogger has little to add, except to pick up on a few things not many have commented on.

MEANS TESTING ELIGIBILITY FOR UNEMPLOYMENT SUPPORT FOR YOUNG ADULTS

Minister Nicola “Noboats” Willis sprung a nasty-tasting surprise on the nation. Her government would be means-testing the parents of their young adult offspring for welfare support.

She said:

“I think parents are going to welcome that policy because I have met with the parents of young people who say to me, 'What am I meant to do to get my son off the couch playing PlayStation all day when the Government just gives him a welfare check [sic] ?”

Two things.

(1) How many parents actually said that to Ms Willis? Was it one? Two? Many? Or was she talking to herself looking in the mirror?

I am reminded of John Key fibbing in February 2012, when he claimed in Parliament that a change of government (from National to Labour) would result in Standard & Poors downgrading Aotearoa New Zealand's credit-rating. Key claimed this had been stated in an “email” he had received from “a friend”, claiming that Standard & Poors would have down-graded New Zealand’s credit-rating had Labour been in office.

The “email”:

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The email's sender (if there ever was one) was redacted.

Unfortunately for Key, Standard & Poors flatly denied they had ever made such a judgement. In effect, they threw Key under a bus, and the unmistakable conclusion was that the Prime Minister had been caught fibbing.

Unless Minister Nikki “Noboats” Willis can provide evidence of those phantom parents, we should treat her story with cautious skepticism.

Also someone in her office please tell Ms Willis that unemployment benefits are now direct-credited into bank accounts. Paying by cheque went out with the Ark. Do try and keep up, Minister.

(2) How many unemployed eighteen and nineteen year olds are on “the couch playing PlayStation all day”? Does Minister Willis know? Does she have any evidence? Any stats?

Or is this one of those hoary old prejudices that she was stoking to finance her Budget by means-testing the unemployment benefit for young adults so as to save a bit of cash?

Especially after spraying billions around in unaffordable tax cuts; landlords interest tax breaks; slashing levies on heated tobacco products; contract break-fees for iRex ferries, etc. (By the way, eighteen and nineteen year olds are no longer considered children under the law.)

But here are statistics that can be referenced, checked, cross-checked, and verified. From BERL Research:

Those aged 15-19 years old (youth) have seen the largest increase in unemployment out of any age group, rising from 20.4 percent in September 2024 to 23.8 percent in December 2024. This age group includes those recently in, or currently in, secondary education. What may be occurring, other than the overall decrease in available jobs, is increased competition for jobs that typically employ secondary students as the overall job market tightens.

The next age group up, 20-24 years old (young adults), have also seen a higher increase in unemployment than the general population. Unemployment for this age group rose by 0.7 percentage points between September 2024 (8.4 percent) and December 2024 (9.1 percent). In fact, youths and young adults were the only age groups where unemployment had increased beyond the 0.3 percentage point increase in the total unemployment rate. We know that often younger workers get outcompeted in the job market by more experienced workers.

The overall unemployment rate is currently 5.1% (in fourth quarter, 2024).

So whilst we don't know how many young people are on “the couch playing PlayStation all day”, what we do know is that they are disproportionately hardest-hit in an ongoing recession that National, Act, and NZ First have exacerbated.

It also doesn't help much when job-seekers are confronted by a job market that is inundated with thousands of unemployed and under-employed workers:

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Or when job-seekers apply for hundreds of positions - only to be constantly rejected:

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With heightened anxiety levels felt by frustrated and disillusioned people struggling to re-enter the workforce and earn enough to pay the rent and bills - if any did end up on the couch playing fantasy games, it would be a welcome respite from the grind of daily job hunting; applications; rejections; repeat.

Not that Ms Nikki Noboats Willis has ever been in a position to comprehend what it must feel like.

No wonder so many New Zealanders have had a gutsful and moved to Australia. It is doubtful they moved to Sydney or Melbourne or Perth to sit on a couch and play with their Xbox, or Playstation, or whatever.

Perhaps being harangued by a politician who has always lived a life of perpetual privilege was more than they could stomach. Looking at you, Ms Willis.

SCRAPPING THIRTYTHREE PAY EQUITY AGREEMENTS - THE STANDARD PROMISE

In May, 2012, I covered the story of rest-home workers being grossly under-paid for the work that they do.

Human Rights Commissioner, Judy McGregor, called on the National to enact pay parity between rest home workers and DHB care, where wages were higher.

Prime Minister at the time, John Key, responded:

“It's one of those things we'd love to do if we had the cash. As the country moves back to surplus it's one of the areas we can look at but I think most people would accept this isn't the time we have lots of extra cash.”

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Mr Key was correct: there wasn’t enough cash.

Why? Because two years previously, in 2010, his government had blown billions in tax cuts which the country could ill afford. (Sound familiar?)

Over a three to four year period, the total cost of personal income tax cuts (which favoured the rich) was $14,330 billion. The rise in GST from 12.5% to 15% (which disproportionately harms lower income workers and their families) would take in $8,630 billion.

That left a revenue shortfall of $5.7 billion:

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No wonder Key’s government couldn’t raise the wages of low-paid careworkers, mostly women. He and his side-kick, Bill English, had flushed almost $6 billion down the fiscal long-drop dunny.

Fast forward to 2025 and National have repeated their profligacy.

As Ryan Ward, author of Free Market Moralism substack blog pointed out:

“The government could have said “oh, actually we don’t have money for these tax cuts, let’s reverse those.”

Instead they cut retirement, pay equity, and health, among others, and are means-testing unemployment benefits and child subsidies.

Just cruel.”

He's correct.

Minister “Noboats" Willis is fond of saying that she and her sorry-excuse-for-a-government had ‘hard choices’ to make. In fact, it is one of her favourite refrains: tough choices/careful choices/trade offs:

“This reprioritisation exercise has required careful consideration and some tough, but necessary, choices.” - Minister Willis

“Putting this Budget together wasn’t easy. It involved careful choices and restraint from all Ministers.” - Minister Willis

“There are trade-offs and there are choices. I stand by the fact that women and women in this economy are going to be getting pay rises under this Government into the future.” - Minister Willis

Mainstream media won't often point out the bleedin' obvious: Minister ‘Noboats' Willis did indeed have difficult/tough/tradeoff choices to make. She just willfully chose to make the wrong ones.

She could have chosen not to squander $19 billion-plus in unaffordable tax cuts; interest tax deductibility for landlords; scrapping tobacco levies; cancelling the ferries - and now massive tax subsidies for the film industry ($577 million) and 20% depreciation for businesses buying assets.

But she chose to go ahead anyway.

Yet perhaps the most feeble and duplicitous assertion from Minister Willis regarding the scrapping of pay equity agreements, is that raising productivity would overcome low wages and pay disparity between the sexes:

"Women benefit when economies grow. That's when their employers, some of whom by the way are in the private sector, can pay them more." - Nicola Willis, 23 May 2025

That excuse for low wages and the pay-equity gap has been around for decades. It seems to be the Go-To for right-wing politicians to exhort people to “work harder to earn more”.

In this case, Minister Noboats Willis was suggesting that pay equity would diminish when the economy grew.

Which is 100% arrant rubbish.

Aotearoa’s GDP, per capita, has been steadily rising, with the occasional blip such as recessions in early and late 1990s; Global Financial Crisis 2007/08; and the 2022 Covid pandemic:

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But while GDP has risen, the gender pay gap has fallen only gradually, and has not moved for the last five years:

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According to Stats NZ, over the past 25 years New Zealand’s national gender pay gap has reduced from 16.3 percent to 9.2 percent. However, progress has slowed over the past 5 years and the gap has remained at 9 percent since 2017. - Fifty years of the Equal Pay Act 1972, NZ Parliament

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The underlying sub-text of Minister “Noboats” Willis’ exhortation to strive for “increased productivity” is that women are not as productive as men. It also “kicks the can down the road”, placing (mis-guided) faith in The Free Market to close gender wage gaps.

That naive faith is expressed elsewhere, especially when it comes to child poverty:

"My view is that the absolute best thing we can do to get children out of poverty is to support their parents into work, and to better paying jobs." - Minister Willis

"And as I said to you, the most fundamental thing that will help these targets [reducing child poverty] is if we have a fast growing economy with lower unemployments, better wage growth." - Minister Willis

If we’re going to rely on “increased productivity” to achieve pay equity, or reduce child poverty, we’ll be waiting for a very long time.

Landlords didn’t have to wait long for their tax breaks, did they?

Minister Willis is 100% correct: she did have ‘tough choices’ to make.

Unfortunately her choices were all wrong.

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POSTSCRIPT: MEDIA PARROTING GOVT LINE IS A NO-NO

“Meanwhile, every Budget delivers a surprise and you'd be looking hard to find an economist or commentator who would have predicted that the Government would target teens on the couch.” - Tom Day, Politics Producer, TVNZ

“Teens on the couch”?!

Memo to Mr Day: if you're going to parrot the government line uncritically, shouldn't you at least be on their payroll? Just ‘cos Ms “Noboats” Willis sez it’, doesn't make it so.

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Acknowledgement

Thanks to my wife for proofreading and correcting all my silly little typos!

References

TVNZ: Analysis - Was Nicola Willis' no BS Budget 'cruel and mean'?

NZ Herald: S&P contradicts Key downgrade claim

BERL: Youth and young adults - Where unemployment hits hardest

The Spinoff: One position, 1,200 applications - A snapshot of New Zealand’s job market right now

RNZ: 500 job applications in 12 months - a jobseeker's struggle

RNZ: In 2025, rising unemployment and a brain drain

Stuff media: PM - No money for aged care workers

NZ Herald: Key defends tax cuts for wealthy

Beehive: Budget 2010 tax changes – at a glance

Substack: Ryan Ward

Beehive: Budget 2025 - The Growth Budget

Beehive: Minister of Finance’s Budget 2025 Speech

TVNZ: 'Trade-offs and choices' - Finance Minister on $12.8b pay equity saving

RNZ: Budget 2025: Finance Minister Nicola Willis (at 5:38)

The Global Economy.com: New Zealand - GDP per capita, PPP

NZ Parliament: Fifty years of the Equal Pay Act 1972

Youtube: TVNZ - Q+A (17:22)

Youtube: TVNZ - Q+A (20:46)

TVNZ: Analysis - Was Nicola Willis' no BS Budget 'cruel and mean'?

Related Stories

Beehive: Pay Gap Calculator toolkit launched

Newsroom: Budget takes from squeezed middle for growth

NZ Herald: Budget 2025 - Pay equity, KiwiSaver and housing – Where the Government cut $21b

The Post: Pay equity - Enough with the slurs, now for some facts

Spinoff: What have the women of the coalition said about pay equity?

Other Blogposts

Gordon Campbell: On Budget 2025

Mike's substack: Party politics, democracy

Recommended Reading

Mountain Tui: Nicola Willis's Debt Higher Than All 6 Years of Ardern Government

Previous related Blogposts

I dunno. I wasn’t told. I wasn’t there (15 February 2012)

It’s one of those things we’d love to do if we had the cash (28 May 2012)

The bewildering world of Chris Luxon - The tax rort that keeps on giving (August, 2024)

Nikki Noboats adrift - have the wheels finally fallen off this inept government? (December. 2024)

Nikki Noboats, Digital Nomads, Totally Noclue (January, 2025)

Govt announces fixing mess it probably created (May, 2025)

Nikki 'Noboats' Willis has 200+ Guests turn up at her Electorate Office (May, 2025)

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Acknowledgement: Sharon Murdoch

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