The Bewildering World of Chris Luxon - Three Bad Polls - Three Strikes for National?
Is it time to panic on the Ninth Floor?
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“One bad poll for a government can be dismissed as “rogue”. Two? That’s damaging.”
Three bad polls? That is when Red Alert lights start flashing; klaxons start to blare; and crew and passengers brace for impact.
On top of recent damaging polling results from Talbot Mills and Stuff/Freshwater, a new Roy Morgan Poll on 3 December has delivered a third blow to the coalition government:
“Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for November 2024 shows the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 50.5% (up 2.5% points) consolidating their lead over the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 44% (down 3% points).”
The actual figures:
National,: 28.5% (-2.5%)
ACT: 9% (n/c)
NZ First: 6.5% (-0.5%)
Total Right Bloc: 44%
Labour: 28% (-1%)
Green Party: 13.5% (-0.5%)
Te Pāti Māori: 9% (+4%)
Total Left Bloc: 50.5%
Other small parties: 5.5%
The poll as taken between October 28 and November 24.
The Talbot Mills Poll was taken November 22-28 and the Stuff/Freshwater poll, 26-27 November. All three cover roughly the same period, and include the historical Hikoi on 19 November.
Unfortunately, when Roy Morgan allocated Parliamentary seats based on the poll, it made the same mistake as other pollsters, failing to factor in Special Votes. Once ‘Specials’ are counted, seat re-allocation means National loses up to two seats parliamentary seats, which are re-allocated to Labour and/or Greens and/or Te Pāti Māori.
Roy Morgan’s original Party seat allocation:
National: 37 seats (-12 seats)
ACT: 11 seats (n/c)
NZ First: 8 seats (n/c)
Total Right Bloc: 56
Labour: 36 seats (+2)
Green Party: 17 seats (+2)
Te Pāti Māori: 11 seats (+5)
Total Left Bloc: 64
Reconfigured to factor in ‘Specials’:
National: 35 seats + ACT: 11 seats + NZ First: 8 seats = 54
Labour: 36 seats + Green Party: 17 seats + Te Pāti Māori: 11 seats + 2 re-allocated seats = 66
It would be a crushing blow for National. They would lose fourteen out of their current 49 MPs based on this Poll. List-only MPs like Nicola Willis, Gerry Brownlee, Melissa Lee, and Paul Goldsmith would be out of Parliament.
Three polls - all bad for National.
It appears that National has borne the brunt of ACT’s Treat Principles Bill, as well as a torrent of bad headlines with cuts to Healthcare; rising unemployment; and increased living costs (including government charges) that have swamped the much-touted tax cuts.
Tax breaks for landlords and PM Luxon selling off three of his investment properties; whilst not paying a dollar in tax on his gains - even as wage-earners pay tax on their incomes; pay tax on their expenditure; pay tax on a tax (rates); and pay several taxes on car fuel - have not gone down well with voters.
If this keeps up, expect National MPs to begin showing signs of straining to express undying loyalty to their Leader. Perhaps National MPs will be cranking up the “barbeques” this summer?
Peters will also be weighing up his options. The moment NZ First begins to nudge 5%, he’ll pull the plug on the Coalition, forcing a snap election. He’ll call it based on a “major coalition breach”.
Maybe the Bishop will make his move? In the rules of politics, check-mating your own King can be as satisfying as defeating an opposition leader.
Keep watching the polls, folks. The Ninth Floor certainly will.
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References
Frankly Speaking: *THOSE* polls! And *NOT* a hung Parliament!
Stuff media: Labour pulls ahead of National in internal polling, as Hipkins plans tax pitch
Stuff media: New poll delivers hung Parliament, bad news for Christopher Luxon as preferred PM
Roy Morgan: National support down again in November as Government seeks to redefine the Treaty of Waitangi
Scoop media: Hīkoi mō te Tiriti brings 42,000 to Parliament
Parliament: National MPs List
Stuff media: PM Christopher Luxon sells third property of 2024
AA: Petrol tax
NZ Herald: Claire Trevett - Leadership and tactical talk over the barbecues
Related Blogposts
Nick’s Kōrero: Throw Away All You Know
Mountain Tui: Luxon Takes A Beating
PreviousRelated Blogposts
The Votes That Media Dare Not Speak Its Name
Special Votes - the Media's Blindspot
*THOSE* polls! And *NOT* a hung Parliament!
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Acknowledgement: Rod Emmerson
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= fs =
An indicator that all is not well is the rate of business failure and some large ones at that. Luxon said he thinks governing is like running a company. Completely wrong. In a company a dearth of revenue necessitates retrenchment. For a government that is the last thing you do.
Maybe, just maybe, Luxon’s chickens are coming home to roost - we just need the media to point out that they have avian influenza and should be culled