The Bewildering World of Chris Luxon - Broken Promises, An Angry Country, and a Govt on Life Support

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National Party leader (current), Christopher Luxon, speaking at a public meeting in Gore, in January last year:

“Now lets be clear, Dunedin Hospital, started under a National Government, mucked around under a Labour Government for the last six years, construction costs have gone through the roof, and would have been better to have got it started it and built it to what we actually need.

Trust us, I don’t know any of the details on how they [Labour] have done their business case or what has changed and I need to dive into that, but we will make sure that in a growing area like Southland and Otago, that we will give it the support that is needed.

That is a classic case of a hospital built in 2004, way too small for what its needs were, and so the danger is that if you don’t future-proof the asset and make the investment for what you will need in the future.’’

Fast forward one year and this wretched government of tobacco lobbyists, gun-rights zealots, and roads/speed obsessives; has done a screeching U-turn:

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Hapless Minister Chris Bishop fronted the ‘Duo of Doom’ - his fearless Leader this time nowhere to be seen.

According to the so-called ‘Minister for Infrastructure’ - a problematic title if ever there was one - the decision to gut the new hospital project was borne from “trying to do the right thing”;

"We are concerned that much needed upgrades to other regional hospitals could be at risk.

We can't justify spending up to $3b here because that comes at the cost of (other regions) ... that is the blunt truth that there are trade offs to spending.

We are now making clear the troubled nature of this project.

We are trying to do the right thing by the public, of Dunedin, but also the rest of the country.

We're making tough decisions and being upfront and transparent."

Minister Bishop (and soon-to-be National Party Leader after Luxon loses the next election) complained bitterly that the cost of Dunedin’s new hospital "could approach $3 billion, which would make it one of the most expensive hospitals ever built in the Southern Hemisphere".

There was also a subtle, unspoken ‘threat’ to the rest of the country;

“This cost simply cannot be justified when hospitals around New Zealand are crying out for maintenance, upgrades and new facilities. Dr Reti and I are concerned that badly needed infrastructure upgrades to Whangarei, Nelson, Hawke’s Bay, Palmerston North and Tauranga hospitals may be put at risk if New Dunedin continues to go so far over budget.”

This was a weak, pitiful attempt to pit the regions against each other - a dry land version of fighting viciously tooth and nail to scramble aboard a sole life-boat, as S.S. Aotearoa begins to sink beneath the waves.

So Dunedin’s new hospital is now in jeopardy from this inept government. Which, to put it mildly, will be unfortunate given that this shabby government’s irresponsible, populist, and often irrational policies will likely result in more harm caused by:

• smoking-related illness and death (just ask Casey Costello)

• firearms incidents resulting in injury and death (just ask Nicole McKee)

• car crashes and other traffic-related injuries, maimings, and death from higher speed limits (just ask Simeon Brown)

Health Minister Dr Shane Reti blamed his Party’s earlier commitment to the new hospital on flawed information:

Reti said the government’s commitment during the campaign was based on “best evidence we had at the time, which we now know was significantly flawed”.

This is the usual cop-out politicians use when breaking promises. It’s been used before, and will be dredged up, to be re-used again, and again…

To be clear, politicians use patently feeble excuses only because we voters allow them to bullsh*t us.

Also to be clear, if National want to play the ‘cost over-runs’ blame-game, we need look no further than the recently completed Transmission Gully.

This motoring project was given the ‘green light’ by National’s Transport Minister, Steven Joyce, in December, 2009.

The cost was initially estimated to be $850 million, when construction started in 2014.

By 2020, the cost had escalated to $1.25 billion.

As of September 2024, the final cost has not been released. Waka Kotahi refuses to make the figures public.

Did the Key-led National government grossly under-estimate the real cost of this highway project? The blame-game goes both ways.

If this National government implements cuts to Dunedin’s new hospital, it will ultimately be to the detriment of citizens in the region.

It may also impact on National’s chances at the next election. Voters have long memories and can cast their ballots with a vengeance.

Specifically, an analysis of Party votes cast in 2020 and 2023, in four South Island Electorates, show that up to 18,304 voters can easily shift their support away from National:

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Needless to say, Dunedin, Taieri, Southland, and Waitaki would be impacted by reduced facilities at a new Dunedin Hospital.

Between those four electorates, 18,303 voters moved away from Labour to National, from 2020 to 2023. (2017 electorates differ from the last two elections and comparisons would be difficult to make.)

Those 18,303 voters appear not to be ardent National supporters and can be swayed by issues that directly impact on their well-being. In 2020, the major well-being issue was the Covid-19 virus sweeping the globe.

At the next election, another issue might also be well-being centered: their hospital.

National ministers are fond of telling the public that “hard choices need to be made” in fiscally constrained times.

National ministers made those ‘hard choices’ when they splurged $2.9 billion to landlords (over a four year period) for interest deductions for their property speculations.

National ministers made those ‘hard choices’ when they gave away $3.7 billion (per year) in bribes tax cuts which benefitted the lowest income earners and superannuitants by around $9 (per fortnight).

The ‘hard choices’ have been made by National. They simply weren’t the right ones.

In May 2010, tens of thousands of New Zealanders took to the streets of our towns and cities to protest planned mining of Conservation lands:

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Just over two months later, and the National government of the day announced a back down. They caved to public pressure:

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The PM of the day, John Key, stated the glaringly obvious:

“New Zealanders have spoken reasonably strongly that they actually do support the expansion of our mining and exploration activities, but they don't support them on pristine parts of the national parks, and in that regard, the Government's listened to the people.”

Fourteen years later, thousands of New Zealanders are again marching in the streets, sending another National government an equally clear message:

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The question is will this current prime minister listen? Does he have the political nous that his predecessor had at the time? Short answer; no. Mr Luxon does not have even a fraction of John Key’s political ‘smarts’.

But hopefully, his closest advisors can still count.

Hopefully they can count 18,303 Party Votes - especially as they slip away to Labour.

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References

Stuff media: 'Trust us' - Luxon says Dunedin's new hospital will be future proofed if National wins the election

RNZ: Costello brushes off revelation tobacco giant Philip Morris targeted NZ First

RNZ: Police Association urges PM to strip gun reform portfolio off Nicole McKee

RNZ: New speed limits mean more people will die - transport researcher

NZ Herald: Transport Minister Simeon Brown unveils $32.9b National Land Transport Programme

RNZ: Government signals downgrade of new Dunedin Hospital

TVNZ News: Outrage in community over Dunedin Hospital downgrade - mayor

Beehive: Next steps on the New Dunedin Hospital

NZ Herald: ‘Outrageous’ local MP fumes as Government goes back to the drawing board on Dunedin Hospital build

Beehive: Transmission Gully gets the green light

NZTA: Contract awarded for Transmission Gully

3News/Newshub: End of the road in sight for Transmission Gully construction

RNZ: Waka Kotahi refuses to release briefing on scheme used to build motorways

Electoral Commission: General Election 2020 - Overall Results [View detailed results by Electorate» Select Electorate]

Electoral Commission: General Election 2023 - Overall Results [View detailed results by Electorate » Select Electorate]

TVNZ News: Cuts to public services as landlords await a $2.9b tax break

NZ Herald: Budget 2024 tax calculator - See how tax cuts affect you and what’s in it for you

NZ Herald: Huge protest says no to mining on conservation land

Stuff media: Government confirms mining backdown

RNZ: 'Biggest protest in Dunedin in decades' as up to 35,000 rally against hospital cuts

Additional

RNZ: Dunedin Hospital downgrade: Unions urge government to reconsider

The Press: Distrust and despair in Dunedin

Other Blogs

Interest.co.nz: No government can survive the level of anger driving one quarter of a major city’s citizens onto the streets

Nick's Kōrero: Trust Us, Luxon Said

The Standard: The Hospital Dunedin needs?

Werewolf: Gordon Campbell On The Mindset Driving The Crisis In Public Health

Previous related blogposts

“It’s one of those things we’d love to do if we had the cash” (28 May 2012)

Health Minister circumvents law to fulfill 2008 election bribe? (18 December 2012)

Children’s Health: not a high priority for Health Minister Tony Ryall (11 January 2013)

National spins new “fake news” narrative: there is no health crisis (6 May 2018)

Purpose-built MIQ: National’s sums don’t add up (20 October 2021)

The Votes That Media Dare Not Speak Its Name (2023)

Special Votes - the Media's Blindspot (2023)

The Bewildering World of Chris Luxon - Entitlement (2024)

The bewildering world of Chris Luxon - The tax rort that keeps on giving (2024)

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Acknowledgement: Sharon Murdoch

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