Poll number 4: Dead Govt Walking
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RNZ reports the latest TVNZ/Verian Poll results:
National: 37%, n/c (46 seats)
Labour: 29%, n/c (36 seats)
Greens: 10%, -2% points (12 seats)
ACT: 8%, n/c (10 seats)
Te Pāti Māori: 7%, up 3% (9 seats)
NZ First: 6%, -1% (7 seats)
The un-named author of the piece states;
“The coalition would still have 63 seats under these numbers, more than enough to govern.”
Wrong.
Again, media commentators have failed to factor in Special votes.
As pointed out previously, after “Specials” are counted and tabulated according to Party percentages, National loses two seats, which is re-allocated to Labour and/or Greens and/or Te Pāti Māori.
After Specials and correct seat allocation, the result is far from “more than enough to govern”:
National + ACT + NZ First: 61
Labour + Greens + Te Pāti Māori: 59
A two seat majority for the Right bloc.
Slightly better than preceeding polls - but still sufficiently ‘tight’ to keep National, ACT, and NZFirst party apparatchiks awake at night.
In just a little over one year, the Coalition has continued to age prematurely and is showing all the decaying symptoms of Third Termitis.
Not a good starting point for the next election campaign.
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References
RNZ: Support for Te Pāti Māori has surged in the latest One News Verian poll
Previous related blogposts
The Votes That Media Dare Not Speak Its Name
Special Votes - the Media's Blindspot
*THOSE* polls! And *NOT* a hung Parliament!
The Bewildering World of Chris Luxon - Three Bad Polls - Three Strikes for National?
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Acknowledgement: Emma Cook
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= fs =
Given 100,000 plus people that participated in the Hikoi - about The Treaty Principles Bill - and other Government direction - the ongoing savage Health cost cutting - I find it difficult to believe that this poll is a reflection of public sentiment and alignment at this moment!
"According to Party percentages, National loses two seats, which is re-allocated to Labour and/or Greens and/or Te Pāti Māori." Kiwi living and working in other countries are doing so because this government has wrecked the economy and forced them to leave. We all know a least one voter in that position who will be voting the coalition out. Mind, it could fold sooner if Peters doesn't hand over the deppity job in May