Poll number 4: Dead Govt Walking

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RNZ reports the latest TVNZ/Verian Poll results:

• National: 37%, n/c (46 seats)

• Labour: 29%, n/c (36 seats)

• Greens: 10%, -2% points (12 seats)

• ACT: 8%, n/c (10 seats)

• Te Pāti Māori: 7%, up 3% (9 seats)

• NZ First: 6%, -1% (7 seats)

The un-named author of the piece states;

“The coalition would still have 63 seats under these numbers, more than enough to govern.”

Wrong.

Again, media commentators have failed to factor in Special votes.

As pointed out previously, after “Specials” are counted and tabulated according to Party percentages, National loses two seats, which is re-allocated to Labour and/or Greens and/or Te Pāti Māori.

After Specials and correct seat allocation, the result is far from “more than enough to govern”:

National + ACT + NZ First: 61

Labour + Greens + Te Pāti Māori: 59

A two seat majority for the Right bloc.

Slightly better than preceeding polls - but still sufficiently ‘tight’ to keep National, ACT, and NZFirst party apparatchiks awake at night.

In just a little over one year, the Coalition has continued to age prematurely and is showing all the decaying symptoms of Third Termitis.

Not a good starting point for the next election campaign.

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References

RNZ: Support for Te Pāti Māori has surged in the latest One News Verian poll

Previous related blogposts

The Votes That Media Dare Not Speak Its Name

Special Votes - the Media's Blindspot

*THOSE* polls! And *NOT* a hung Parliament!

The Bewildering World of Chris Luxon - Three Bad Polls - Three Strikes for National?

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Acknowledgement: Emma Cook

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