Latest Poll- Nats in a slo-mo death spiral?
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The Numbers
2024 could easily have been National’s “Annus Horribilis” and 2025 shows no signs of a reprieve for our Landlord PM Chris Luxon and his inept Finance Minister Nikki “Noboats” Willis.
Several polls last year were suggestive that the HMNZS ‘National’ had done a HMNZS Manawanui - hitting the reef of public opinion. But instead of a rapid death-dive, the Nats had sprung scores of lacerations. The doom of this ship would be slower.
The latest public opinion poll - from David Farrar’s Curia Polling for their client, the Taxpayers “Union” - has dire results for Luxon and his crew:
National: 38 (-6)
Labour: 39 (+5)
Greens: 12 (+1)
ACT: 14 (-3)
NZ First: !0 (+3)
Te Pati Maori: 7 (n/c)
According to the Taxpayer’s “Union” website, the Right bloc would have 62 seats, with the Left, 58.
As usual, none of the stories on Stuff, NZ Herald, and RNZ, nor the Taxpayers “Union”, factor-in Special votes. The last three elections (2017, 2020, and 2023) have all resulted in the Nats losing two seats and re-distributed amongst Labour and/or The Greens and/or Te Pāti Māori.
The msm seem to have an ongoing “blind spot” in this area.
Factoring in Special Votes, stripping the Nats of two seats and re-allocating them to one or more of the left bloc parties, the results change dramatically:
National/Act/NZF: 60
Labour/Greens/TPM: 60
If these numbers persist to the next election (which may be sooner than we think) it will be a tight race.
The Nutters
The second notable aspect to the Curia Poll is the public’s clear disdain for the track that we are on. According to TU/Curia:
39% of respondents said the country was moving in the right direction, compared to 53% who said it was moving in the wrong direction. This gives a net right/wrong direction result of -14% (down 17 points).
The kind folk at TU even presented a colourful graph, showing public antipathy to this government’s “track”:
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In a media statement, Taxpayers' “Union” spokesman, Jordan Williams, said:
"Tough news about the dire state of the economy hit the headlines in December, so it's not a coincidence the Government's taken a big hit in the polls."
Just one year into this Government, a two-to-one ratio of voters say New Zealand is headed in the 'wrong direction'.”
Now, any rational person interpreting the Right/Wrong track would look at the public’s response and quickly figure out: “Hey, the punters aren’t liking the stuff we’re dishing out. We either call a snap election and dump everything into a Labour-Green-TPM collective lap - or change tack!”
Right?
But not the Atlas Network’s man in Aotearoa, Jordan Williams. This man is not for turning as his neoliberal centrefold idol once decreed. Instead, Mr Williams is actually doubling-down on wanting tougher neoliberal reforms:
"… That is anything but an endorsement of National's softly-softly approach to economic and fiscal matters."
"For many families, Christmas provides a real economic mirror. The data shows people are doing it tough. Nicola Willis' lack of boldness in the economic sphere appears to be hurting National's electoral prospects."
I don’t know if Mr Williams drives a car.
But if he doesn’t, here’s a practical safety tip.
When you’re headed toward a cliff, you hit the brakes. Not the accelerator pedal.
Planting boot on the gas simply takes you over the cliff faster.
In this case, an electoral cliff.
But by all means, if you want to take the Nats over a cliff, I’ll just get out of your way.
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References
Wikipedia: Annus horribilis
Taxpayers “Union”: NEW POLL - Labour leapfrogs National in Taxpayers' Union–Curia Poll for first time since April 2023
Stuff: Labour ahead of National in first political poll of the year
RNZ: Labour passes National in new poll
Electoral Commission: 2017 General Election official results
Electoral Commission: 2020 General Election official results
Electoral Commission: 2023 General Election official results
Taxpayers “Union”: Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: January 2025
Wikipedia: The lady's not for turning
Other Blogs
The Standard: Latest opinion poll – Labour overtakes National
Previous related blogposts
The Votes That Media Dare Not Speak Its Name
Special Votes - the Media's Blindspot
*THOSE* polls! And *NOT* a hung Parliament!
The Bewildering World of Chris Luxon - Three Bad Polls - Three Strikes for National?
Poll number 4: Dead Govt Walking
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Oh I’m surprised by this. The Curia / NZ Taxpayers Union Poll - which has been discredited by the Research Association of NZ usually has a Right Wing slew, deliberately to enhance people’s perception of the Right!
For National and ACT to take such a big tumble in the Curia Poll is extraordinary! The people of Aotearoa NZ are very unhappy with the Govt. The Govt is clearly empowering the Corporates at the expense of ordinary people and that’s not sitting comfortably with a great chunk of people! Let’s hope this trend for National and ACT is terminal!
Sadly I'm still skeptical.
This is why. Newstalk ZB have a slew of right-wing hosts trumpeting the current Govt.
And they have the most listeners' ears in NZ radio.
This made me really angry:
"Hosking is certainly New Zealand’s top radio broadcaster and a ratings phenomenon. It is inarguable that he drives an extremely loyal breakfast audience.
ZB has made huge gains over the years and especially since 2020, building a strong base of listeners on its hardline questioning about the previous Government’s Covid response."
So his whole show is based around bagging the previous Govt (who have been gone for over a year now). As is HDP Allen's show.