The Bewildering World of Chris Luxon - Polls - the continuing demolition of a rotten government
.
.
Another day, another bad poll.
The most recent Talbot Mills, which provides political polling for private clients, continues to paint a grim picture for this coalition government:
Labour: 35% (42 seats)
National: 32% (39 seats)
Green Party: 12% (15 seats)
ACT: 8% (10 seats)
NZ First: 7% (9 seats)
Te Pāti Māori: 3.8% (6 seats)
Left Bloc: 63
Right Bloc: 58
(Seats estimates from Wikipedia Polling page. Special votes NOT factored in above.)
Seats re-allocated after Special Votes factored in:
Left Bloc: 65
Right Bloc: 56
It will be a thorough repudiation of the Right in this country.
This part had staggering implications:
The results paint a grim picture for the coalition government, with 76% saying the economy was “not so good” or “poor”, while 37% expected things to worsen.
National’s reputation has always been based on being “prudent fiscal managers” - but obviously respondents to this poll weren’t feeling it.
This was backed up with:
Only 23% of those polled said the economy was in “good” or “excellent” shape.
That 23% is basically the “rump vote” of the National Party, as evidenced by the crushing election of 2002. At 20.93% of the Party Vote that election was probably the worst result for National, effectively ending Bill English’s brief stint as Party leader.
But now, as one damaging poll follows another, we are now seeing the unthinkable - headlines like this:
.
.
Which also goes some way to explain why this creaking government saw fit to make a breathless announcement last Sunday (20 July) on infrastructure building projects that have already been announced - some by the previous government. (More on that in a follow-up blogpost.)
The stench of desperation is thick around the Beehive.
Especially emanating from the Prime Minister’s office. His staff must be quietly reflecting on their defeat in 2002.
History is about to repeat.
.
References
The Post: Poll suggests National headed to one-term Government
Wikipedia: Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election - Forecasts
Stuff: New poll paints grim picture for the coalition government
Wikipedia: 2002 New Zealand general election
Previous Related Blogposts
The Votes That Media Dare Not Speak Its Name
Special Votes - the Media's Blindspot
The Bewildering World of Chris Luxon - Broken Promises, An Angry Country, and a Govt on Life Support
*THOSE* polls! And *NOT* a hung Parliament!
The Bewildering World of Chris Luxon - Three Bad Polls - Three Strikes for National?
Poll number 4: Dead Govt Walking
Nikki Noboats adrift - have the wheels finally fallen off this inept government?
Latest Poll - Nats in a slo-mo death spiral?
The Bewildering World of Christopher Luxon - Back on Track... to Opposition.
.
Acknowledgement: Shaun Yeo
.
Liked what you read? Feel free to share.
Have your own thoughts? Leave a comment. (Trolls need not bother.)
.
= fs =
Still a lot of work to do. Even a slight perceived slow down in inflation or increase in house prices, combined with media undermining opposition parties in the name of "balance" could tip it the other way.
Really hope this follows through into the next election. This lot must absolutely be routed with no knighthoods to follow.